Never say never is the first rule of politics, so it may be premature to write the National Democratic Movement’s obituary. But with declining poll ratings, ineffective leadership and muddled policies, the NDM increasingly appears a spent force.

Jamaican political parties are often said to lack imagination. But over the past decade the Jamaica Labour Party has consistently come up with new and innovative ways to alienate voters and damage its electoral credibility. The gang of 5, the western 11, the local government boycott, the Mike Henry and Abe Doubdab affairs, the committee for the rebuilding of the JLP – not even the PNP in its wildest fantasies could have envisioned such a litany of Labour self-destruction.

AIDS now kills more people worldwide than any other infectious disease and is mankind’s fourth leading cause of death, after heart disease, strokes and respiratory infections. And more people died of AIDS in 1999 than in any previous year.  In many affected countries the improvement in the quality of life that has taken place over the past fifty years is being reversed. In Zimbabwe over 25% of adults are HIV positive - the world’s highest infection rate - and some estimates there show life expectancy falling to 38 years, 17 years shorter that it would have been. “Healthy life expectancy in some African countries is dropping back to levels we haven’t seen in advanced countries since medieval times” says one UN Health Agency director. This is a far worse disaster than anything foreseen when worst-case HIV scenarios were first discussed. US Government analysts now say that a quarter of southern Africa’s population is likely to die of Aids, and the epidemic could follow a similar course in South Asia and the former Soviet Union.

The United States claims to be the land of the free. But like many television ads, the reality is very different from the image. The US contains only 5% of the world’s population but over 25% of its prisoners, and America’s incarceration rate of over 730 per 100,000 is the highest on earth. (Jamaica’s 135 per 100,000 is fairly normal.) In 1980 there were 500,000 inmates in the US. There are now over 2 million, two thirds of whom have been convicted for non-violent crimes, mainly drug offences. Average prison sentences have also increased, partly as a result of “three strikes and you are out” legislation mandating long fixed jail terms for repeat offenders. All this is the result of laws making it easier to arrest and convict suspects.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and gorgeous scenery comes in many forms – snow capped mountains, gleaming lakes, immaculate gardens. But to most people paradise is a tropical isle, and Jamaica is undoubtedly the loveliest of them all. “The fairest island eyes ever beheld” wrote Columbus. Or to quote the ‘South American and Caribbean Handbook’ – “It would be difficult to imagine a greater variety of tropical scenery in an area of similar size”.

In March I phoned Food For The Poor to ask founder Ferdinand Mahfood about their plan to build 2,000 houses in Jamaica. His well spoken assistant told me Mr. Mahfood was out of the country. He sounded young so out of curiosity I asked him about himself. His name was Romeo Effs and he was 29. I found the idea of a young guy doing charity work unusual. How had he ended up there? It’s a long story he laughed. Sounds interesting I said, tell me more. Sure he answered. But he was busy, so check back next day.

According to Professor Anthony Harriott one of the main causes of the nation’s high murder rate is the inability of many Jamaicans to resolve conflicts without resorting to violence. He says the sharp drop in homicides in some inner city communities over the past two years was partly due to conflict resolution programs established there. He reckons that if such programs were put in place island-wide, our murder rate could drop by 40%.

There are reasonable arguments both for and against replacing the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council as Jamaica’s final appellate court with a Caribbean Court of Justice. But even many who favour such a move in principle think the process is being handled in a very unsatisfactory manner. The entire matter seems not to have been properly thought out. Have estimates been made of how much it would cost to establish and maintain such a court? How will it be funded? What will happen if one of the signatory countries to such a court withdraws? Will it be a case like the West Indies Federation of “Ten minus one equals zero”? If the CCJ thus falls apart, will the Jamaican Supreme Court be our final court of appeal?

Back in the colonial days our British masters considered Jamaicans’ reluctance to marry a main source of our problems. It seemed obvious to them that if Jamaica became more like Britain, where nearly all children were born to married parents, it would be a more disciplined and productive place. One governor’s wife reportedly went so far as to arrange a mass marriage ceremony where about 40 people tied the knot at one time.

The world once regarded Robert Mugabe as a hero. Blacks in Rhodesia had to fight a bitter guerilla war against an oppressive white minority regime to gain equal rights, and many predicted revenge and racial massacre after independence. But when Mugabe took the helm of the renamed Zimbabwe in 1980, he talked only of democracy, peace, and reconciliation.