http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20070909/focus/focus3.html
Published: Sunday | September 9, 2007

Call us lucky or God-blessed, but Jamaica sure has a knack for just-in-time escapes from disaster. Last month, Hurricane Dean swerved away at the last moment and just brushed us. Monday night we escaped a political dead heat by the skin of our teeth.

Sure, the seat count is now 33-27, but the actual vote count of 405,215 (Jamaica Labour Party) to 402,275 (People's National Party), or 50.2 per cent to 49.8 per cent, could very well have resulted in an unprecedented and unprepared for 30-30 tie.

God knows what would have happened then, especially given the inflammatory language used by the former Prime Minister about intimidation and vote-buying and criminal behaviour and conceding nothing. As Colin Steer pointed out in the September 5 Gleaner, it is sheer hypocrisy for either side to indulge in such talk, for 'none of our parties is enveloped in holy vestments'.

Preparing a blueprint

In 2002, I, as did others, wrote articles about a possible tie and preparing a blueprint for dealing with such an eventuality. I even went so far as to phone Director of Elections Danville Walker on the matter. Last month, I found myself writing virtually the same article and again calling Mr. Walker - talk about déjà vu.

After this close shave, surely something will now be done about redrawing constituency boundaries and giving us an odd number to make sure the possibility of a deadlock no longer exists. But given this country's lackadaisical attitude and general belief that if you just ignore things they will somehow work out themselves, well I'm not betting the farm.

The closeness surprised me. Based on the polls and word on the street, the JLP seemed headed for a comfortable victory. But they only prevailed by the shortest of heads. On Monday night, I heard a JLP official murmuring to himself "We lose. We lose. Man, this is it for the JLP. We will never win another election." So all those Labourites claiming they were never worried can just 'tek wey themselves'.

This was the most one-sided political campaign in living memory. The JLP out-advertised the PNP in quality and quantity. Their manifesto was vastly superior. Bruce Golding outclassed Portia Simpson Miller in the leadership debates.

The JLP team was visibly united, while the PNP big guns were mostly absent from the campaign trail. The Prime Minister showed pathetic leadership skills during and after the passage of Hurricane Dean. But despite all this, the JLP only got 3,000 more votes than the PNP.

Some say the Comrades simply have a bigger hard-core base. But they only won the 2002 general elections by 4.5 per cent and lost the 2003 local government elections by 3.3 per cent, which hardly supports the 'PNP country' theory.

Despite media reports about long lines, the turnout was surprisingly low. On a mostly sunny day, only 60 per cent of registered voters voted, almost the same as the 59 per cent that braved the rain in 2002. Which suggests that, as is usually the case in elections, the young had more bark than bite. It seems not many of those vociferous green band-wearing under-30s made it to the ballot box.

In my view, the closeness was likely due to the Portia factor. Whatever her shortcomings, and they have been many and obvious, apparently a large number of Jamaicans just love Mrs. Simpson-Miller no matter what.

Many who watched the leadership debates are still stunned that someone who showed absolutely no grasp of the issues facing the country could still get 49.8 per cent of the votes. It simply makes no rational sense. But, as they say, you can't reason people out of what they never reasoned themselves into.

History repeating itself

In a sense, history repeated itself again. For the fourth consecutive time since 1944, an administration that lost the popular vote in a local government election was voted out in the following general election.

But this was the first such incumbent government to significantly increase its general election percentage of the vote compared to its local government score.

Which suggests that, without Portia, the PNP might have lost more decisively. So, it will be interesting to see what happens at the upcoming PNP conference. Will the comrades go full speed ahead with Portia? Or will they change course and elect a new leader?

On closer examination, this election was not as close as the raw figures suggest. Taking out the garrison factor paints a very different picture. Political garrisons are neighbourhoods or communities where the right to a free vote is circumscribed by intimidation - in

other words, people are denied the right to vote freely and fairly as they wish regardless of party allegiance. A garrison constituency is a constituency where garrison elements are so significant that they pre-ordain the outcome of the election in that constituency.

I personally know persons whose houses were fire-bombed because they were rumoured to have voted for the 'wrong' party. Is it mainly good governance that garners Mrs. Simpson-Miller, Mr. Davis, Mr. Paulwell and Mr. Golding more than 80 per cent of the vote?

The nine undisputed predetermined garrisons in Jamaica are Kingston West, Kingston Central, Kingston East and Port Royal, St. Andrew Western, St. Andrew East Central, St. Andrew South West, St. Andrew South, Clarendon Central and St. Catherine Central. The PNP holds six of these, the JLP three.

In non-garrison constituencies where the result is not pre-ordained by overt or implicit threats of physical harm, the JLP won the vote by over 13,000 votes or 1.8 per cent and had a 30 to 21 seat majority. Which is a solid if not huge margin. In garrisons, however, the PNP got over 10,000 more votes or 11.3 per cent.

Jamaica dodged a bullet in more ways than one on Monday. While a 30-30 would have been a disaster, a 31-29 PNP victory would have in effect meant a six PNP to three JLP pre-ordained garrison count and a 26 JLP to 25 PNP non-predetermined garrison majority. Which would amount to a government not freely and fairly elected, and hence no true democracy. Those who consider garrisons a minor issue of little consequence should think deeply on this matter. That is, if they value the real concept of democracy.

Pollsters garnered much attention in this campaign. In the end, as in 2002, only Don Anderson made a final call within the accepted three per cent margin of error. There has been much speculation about polls being used to deliberately manipulate voter preferences. In Anderson Jamaica has seemingly found a numbers man whose integrity and competence can be trusted, and a worthy successor to the late great Carl Stone.

The biggest winner in this election was naturally Prime Minister-elect Bruce Golding. He has fought the good fight, and no politician in Jamaica has ever deserved his victory more. His election night speech was simply masterful.

As Owen 'Blakka' Ellis put in the September 5 STAR column,"Mr. Golding impressed me. Why? He didn't gloat and pop style. After 18 years in the wilderness it takes a special person to be so humble and magnanimous in victory. He's a gentleman, a real statesman and he glitters. He deserves big congratulations and the full support of the nation." Let's hope Papa Bruce carries on like this for the next five years.