http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20060326/focus/focus2.html
Published: Sunday | March 26, 2006

COLUMNISTS KEEP banging on about this Government's corruption and economic mismanagement and its miserable inability to control crime. But the 'Woe is us!' brigade is obviously wasting its time.

So what if Jamaica's murder count went from 414 in 1989 to 1670 in 2005? According to the March 14 Gleaner Bill Johnson poll, '83 per cent of Jamaicans feel safe living in their communities'.

Now, a November 8, 2005 Globe and Mail poll showed that 81 per cent of persons in the Canadian province of Ontario felt safe. So though our world leading homicide rate is approximately 40 times as great as theirs, Jamaicans actually feel safer than Ontarions.

Naturally, that's assuming both polls are reasonably accurate reflections of reality. Considering how far off Mr. Johnson was in the 2003 election when he predicted a 10 point plus PNP victory ­ commentator Tony Myers says they should have taken away his work permit and charged him with impersonation ­ this may not be a safe supposition.

It's strange that Mr. Johnson's demonstrated incompetence on Jamaican matters has been rewarded with a series of front page polls. Actual results exposed his 2003 surveys as basically party propaganda.

The Johnson crime poll squares with observed reality. Despite a 400 per cent murder increase on its watch, this PNP regime has been re-elected three times, while last year's anti-crime marches failed to attract even 500 demonstrators. But maybe that was the organisers' fault. As I heard someone remark after the Emancipation Day 'Million Woman March' ­ "Them really could hold a march on a holiday Saturday when everybody gone beach or fixing themselves up for session that night?'

Some claim Jamaicans are too scared and disheartened by our record murder rate to take any mass action. Well, tell that to the 100,000-plus throngs who jammed Half-Way Tree for PNP and JLP rallies during the last election. Or the 30,000-plus who almost tore down Emancipation Park at the Rising Star TV show finals last year. I guess it's all a matter of priorities.

IMPOVERISHED NATION

In another Johnson poll finding, 49 per cent considered Michael Manley our best Prime Minister and three per cent chose Hugh Shearer. Now, during Manley's 1972-1980 tenure, Jamaica's per capita GDP fell by about a third, while on Shearer's 1967-1972 watch it actually rose by over one-third. So the leader who impoverished his nation is 16 times as popular as the one who enriched it. Not a surprising judgement from a people who 'overwhelmingly feel safe' despite living in the planet's most murderous country.

Mr. Johnson's respondents also consider the PNP better than the JLP at fighting corruption, creating jobs and cutting crime. Since this PNP government has over the past 17 years lurched from scandal to scandal, overseen a net job loss and allowed the murder rate to increase fourfold, this would seem an incredible finding.

Now, maybe Mr. Johnson is simply way off base again. Yet, in a democracy you don't have to be good, only better than your opponents. And while the PNP has governed abysmally since 1989, the JLP remains arguably the world's worst opposition party.

In most countries, 17 years of endless scandals, non-existent growth and record crime rates would mean a government hopelessly behind in the polls. Only Herculean incompetence and arrogance by the JLP could have allowed the PNP to win four straight terms and be on track for a fifth.

Labourite leaders have apparently confused their job with Mutty Perkins'. God knows this country has problems. But dwelling on the bleakness of the national situation and thoroughly depressing your audience is for talk show hosts, not opposition leaders. What people want from the challenger party is hope and solutions, evidence that it has a superior vision and better plans than the incumbent government for running the country.

But, what does the JLP stand for? It has not put forward a single concrete crime cutting idea. Why has it not hounded the government for not fixing the ballistic and finger print testing computers that crashed in Y2K? Or kept calling loudly for a Proceeds of Crime act? Or relentlessly demanded DNA testing laws and DNA equipment that would probably cost a fraction of the hundreds of millions spent in the PNP leadership race?

Proper laws and technology a la the UK and US would cut our homicide rate drastically. It's incredible that the government of earth's most murderous nation has not implemented such crime fighting basics. But it is even more incredible that the opposition has said nothing about this negligence.

I'm amazed to be writing this, but if an election were held tomorrow, there is maybe a 55 per cent chance I would vote PNP, or rather for Portia. Not only do I mostly share the common 'better the devil you know' sentiment, but part of me hopes Sista P can really break down tribal barriers and unite the nation.

However my support for the lady is mile wide and inch deep. It could easily change depending on her cabinet. Will her security minister have a full grasp of the relevant issues? Will a steady hand remain on the finance tiller? And who knows, maybe the JLP will shock everyone by actually coming up with an intelligent crime fighting plan that deserves our vote.

Whether Bill Johnson's 52 per cent PNP to 26 per cent JLP figure is accurate or not, Portia has a big lead by any measure. And her settling of the Windalco dispute sent her stocks soaring even higher. So why make any substantial changes before she seeks her mandate? Going to the whip when you're 10 lengths in front might frighten the horse. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

So my advice to Portia is to leave the fundamentals alone and nurture her political capital till she really needs it. Crime is trending down, so keep Peter Phillips in security if he still wants the job. Inflation is moderating and healthy economic growth is forecast this year, so let Omar Davis stay in finance.

As for the 'new driver, old bus' argument, well changing out a third of the Cabinet and bringing in new faces like Trevor Munroe as Education Minister and perhaps Aubyn Hill as say Foreign Affairs Minister and maybe Glenda Simms as Local Government Minister should do the trick.

Focus in the mean time on universally popular guaranteed headline issues. Such as a law requiring the father's name and TRN on every birth certificate, with forced DNA testing for reluctant baby fathers. For full attention grabbing and weeks of heated debate effect, make it retroactive for every child under 18.

True, it might mean multiple partner tests for many baby mothers, and it wouldn't solve the problem of women having children for wastrels who already have 10 and can't even mind one. But, it would force big men who impregnate young girls to play at least a financial role in their offspring's life.

Male parliamentarians who have outside children they are not supporting might oppose such a bill. But, what better way for Portia to show she is not the 'same old same old' than by cornering elected deadbeat dads into a fight they couldn't win? After all, more women vote than men.

Other sure crowd pleasers would be naming the North Coast Highway after Bob Marley - a definite foreign press attractor - and naming the Old Harbour bypass after Louise 'Miss Lou' Bennett and inviting her for a grand christening ceremony. It might make some a trifle uncomfortable to see Miss Lou used as a bit of a political tool. But if that's what it would take to get the great lady this well deserved honour while she can appreciate it, well so be it.

Don't rock the economic boat, stirring up the public with symbolic feel good measures, and calling an election as soon as possible to capitalise on the current 'woman time Mama P' euphoria seems a sure fire 5th term strategy to me.

But then, I'm one of the minority of Jamaicans who thinks having the world's highest murder rate is a big problem. So what do I know?