The PNP got 52% and the JLP 47.5% of the votes cast on October 16^th. However in garrison constituencies many people vote not as they desire but as they are told. It’s hard to say how many seat results are primarily determined by force. But four constituencies – which also contain the island’s most crime stricken areas - gave one party over 80% support

The vote in these seats cannot be considered free of fair, and should be excluded from any reckoning of the popular sentiment. Here are the results with these separated from the national total.

In non-garrisons therefore the PNP had only a 2.4% vote advantage. But this does not tell the entire story. Because the heavy rains on October 16^th undoubtedly lowered the voter turnout significantly, and this likely helped the PNP. For one a low turnout nearly always favours the incumbent, if only because those with government related livelihoods make every effort to get it re-elected. For two the Comrades have a superior get-out-the-vote machinery. No one knows how many votes the rain cost the JLP, but chances are they would at least cancelled out that 17,559 non-garrison vote differential.

Now we were probably fortunate not to get a closer result than 34-26 - the post election fallout was bloody enough as it was. But the bottom line is that this PNP government does not have a truly popular mandate even after outspending the JLP two to one in advertising - and this doesn’t count all those NHDC, NHT and HEART ads run ‘coincidentally’ during the campaign. P.J. Patterson’s warning to his party not to be arrogant or corrupt was a clear recognition of this – though is not such a statement from a third term leader tantamount to an admission that his previous administrations were guilty of hubris and dishonesty?

In fact our present situation reminds me of Britain after Margaret Thatcher’s resignation, where a generally unpopular Conservative government was re-elected only because the opposition completely lacked credibility. But the British Labour party then chose a popular leader and started talking sense, and has since crushed the Tories twice. If the JLP follows a similar path it could easily become as dominant here as Tony Blair’s party currently is in Britain.

But the JLP has rarely acted logically in he last decade, and Edward Seaga often gives the impression that he prefers to lose doing it his way than to win if it means listening to anyone else. Yet if he wants to exit Jamaican politics with dignity, this is his last chance to say what the voters want to hear and do as they wish – which really is the essence of politics.

Above all Bruce Golding – who is clearly the people’s choice - must be positioned as Mr. Seaga’s undisputed heir apparent, which means he must first win a seat in parliament. Now were Mr. Golding a Comrade there are any number of constituencies into which he could be safely parachuted a la Omar Davis in 1993. But the only realistic JLP options are Mr. Golding’s old Central St. Catherine seat and Mr. Seaga’s own West Kingston stronghold. The big problem with the latter is that Mr. Golding’s current popularity is based primarily on his repeated repudiation of political violence and intimidation. Could he assume control of the country’s most notorious – though not most one sided – garrison without destroying his reputation?

Yet suppose Mr. Golding daringly accepted the west Kingston seat and courageously tried to non-garrisonize it by preaching political non-violence in its every nook and cranny. This would not only go down as perhaps the bravest act by a Jamaican politician since Bustamante bared his chest to police bayonets, it would at a stroke make garrisonship almost completely a PNP issue and put all intimidation detesting Jamaicans squarely in the Labour camp. The Comrades would be forced to try and clean up their own dens of electoral iniquity out of a sheer sense of survival. And the stain of forced voting that so tarnishes Jamaica’s otherwise wonderful democratic record would be drastically reduced.

But for any of this to happen the entire JLP executive must behave sensibly. Mr. Seaga has to face the truth that he is now a baton passing transition figure. And JLP deputy leaders Audley Shaw, Ed Bartlett, Derrick Smith and Babsy Grange have to accept the reality that whatever their ambitions, it’s Mr. Golding who the public wants to be the next JLP leader. Nor is this a matter of choice. If Labour doesn’t give Jamaicans what they want, it will not see power for at least another decade.

God only knows if any of this will ever come to pass. But if Mr. Golding becomes the appointed heir apparent and Mr. Seaga announces that he will retire in two years, the JLP would almost certainly sweep the next parish council elections. Mr. Seaga could then leave the stage a victor, and a Golding led JLP would be odds on to easily win the next general election.

The PNP’s only hope then of winning a fifth term would be to end corruption, deliver the 6% growth it has long been promising, and cut crime to pre-1990 levels by freeing the police from political interference. But can any party really expect the populace not to turn against it if after more than 15 years in power it cannot deliver prosperity or security? changkob@hotmail.com