There are peoples who like keep their own counsel and are reluctant to express their thoughts to others. Jamaicans are not among these. Any opinion we have is worth sharing, and at the top of our voices. Of course verbal remarks that prove wrongheaded are easily denied or forgotten. Printed mistakes are permanent black and white embarrassments.

Last June a JLP crowd turned up at the Jamaica Observer’s gates protesting Mark Wignall’s ‘persistent vulgar attacks’ on party leader Edward Seaga. At the time virtually every public commentator in the country – except understandably the Gleaner’s Delroy Chuck – spoke and wrote of this as the act of a desperate party and man. Seaga, all agreed, was a millstone around the JLP’s neck, a has been with absolutely no chance of ever getting back into power. He was too old, too white, too out of step with the times, too tarnished by charges of violence and corruption, too deeply in debt, too discredited by his financial failures.

Indeed many felt he was only opposition leader at P.J. Patterson’s behest. The PNP executive – so the argument went – knew that while Seaga led the JLP it had absolutely no chance of ever winning an election and so did not want him to resign. The minute he did so they would simply call in all his tax debts and bankrupt him. And the great fear among many commentators was that with Seaga as JLP leader Jamaica was virtually a one party state, since as long as he was there the PNP could do whatever it wanted and still be guaranteed a fourth consecutive term.

Among those maintaining that Seaga must go was one K.O. Chang who declaimed “…Mr. Seaga is now 70 and the JLP has lost 6 elections in a row since 1985. Can one imagine a football team without a title for 15 years not changing the manager? Or a cricket team keeping the same captain through 6 consecutive test series defeats? Mr. Seaga is like a former heavyweight champion long past his prime who refuses to stop fighting and blames the referee and judges for his defeats. But he is not only hurting himself and his legacy, he is holding a country to ransom and slowly helping to undermine its democratic institutions.”

Well, to paraphrase the old Dinah Washington song, what a difference a year makes. Edward Seaga is no longer dismissed as a tired old has been but respectfully spoken of as the next prime minister of Jamaica in waiting. No less an authority than his former bete noir Mark Wignall has repeatedly written that no matter what the PNP does it has no chance of winning the next election. While twelve months ago money seemed very tight for the JLP, the party seems now so awash in cash that according to press reports supporters here and abroad were able to present Mr. Seaga with not one but two ‘cris’ four wheel drives. Many of those who were treating him with disdain are now again tugging at his shirt sleeves. For Mr. Seaga the glory days of 1980 seem here again.

And whatever one’s personal feelings about the man, from an operational point of view it is difficult not to admire his continually fearless confrontation of issues, the grim determination with which he resisted all calls to resign, and the methodical rigour with which he purged his party of all who opposed his rule. Proving once again that the three most important attributes in politics are large cohones, a thick skin, and a strong stomach.

Mr. Seaga’s resurrection has also been a lesson in the mysterious way in which the miracle of democracy unfolds. Because if one looks back over the past twelve months it is difficult to pinpoint any specific incidents that turned the tide for the JLP and against the PNP. The most significant event has probably been the North East St. Ann election, if only because it proved that the PNP under P.J. Patterson was not invulnerable and the Eddie Seaga led JLP really could win a tough seat.

But why did a majority of voters in that constituency decide to vote for the JLP? Certainly there had been no significant change in the situation in the country. In concrete terms the economy was just as lousy, the roads just as bad, and government corruption perceived to just as rife as it was in June 2000 when the PNP was well ahead in national polls. But somehow voters in North East St. Ann had decided that they wanted a change from the PNP to the JLP.

And if one is to believe the never before mistaken Stone Polls, so have a majority of Jamaicans. Certainly the PNP of late has given off all the signs of a party on the way out. What with the MacGregor tapings, Errol Ennis cheque scandal, and the resignations of Janet Madden and Paul Burke it is looking like an organization that has lost its touch and the confidence of its people. It is strange really how popular perceptions of the same persons can change so strongly. No longer do people talk of P.J. as “the black man leader” and Seaga as “the white dinosaur”. Instead Patterson is derided as weak and irresolute while Eddie is lauded as strong and decisive. People who used to worry about a “PNP one party state” are now fretting about the consequences of a possible JLP landslide.

One thing is certain, the last twelve months have proven that democracy in Jamaica is as strong as ever. For all its imperfections – violence, intimidation, garrisons, dons, patronage, rum and curry goat vote buying, ballot box stuffing – the Jamaican political system has proven time and time again that nothing can still the voice of the people. There has never been an election here which the most genuinely popular party did not win, and the past year’s events give no reason to think it will be any different next time.

Which makes me very proud as a Jamaican. When I see the difficulties places like Peru, the Phillipines, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe have had and are having in getting rid of unpopular leaders, I can only marvel at the remarkable political structure we have developed in this country for enabling the voice of the people to be truly heard. Whether they choose rightly or wrongly will always be a matter of personal opinion, but no one can deny that in the end it is always the people of Jamaica who decide.

None of which means that the JLP is a sure winner and the PNP a sure loser in the next election. Who knows if in a year’s time we will not be discussing another massive opinion shift in the other direction? If, as Harold Wilson famously remarked, a week is a long time in politics, then a year is an eternity. changkob@hotmail.com