Politics consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable - John Kenneth Galbraith

Faced with a seemingly endless recession and a merciless crime wave, Jamaicans are crying out for change. Neither the JLP nor NDM appear more capable than the present government. But what if they joined forces?

The public likes the idea – the last 4 Stone polls have shown the PNP leading the JLP but trailing the combined JLP/NDM. And it makes sense in theory, for they have complimentary strengths and weaknesses.

The JLP still commands a hard core following of about one third of those who vote, but its personnel does not inspire confidence. At 7% the NDM has clearly failed to excite the public. But it has attracted many successful private sector figures who might not otherwise have gotten into politics, which alone justifies its formation.

In business terms the JLP has a strong brand name but weak products. The NDM has quality goods but an untrusted label. Were they commercial entities a merger would be a ‘no brainer’. A cabinet of say Edward Seaga, Bruce Golding, Pearnel Charles, Audley Shaw, Derrick Smith, Hyacinth Bennett, Barbara Clarke, Delroy Chuck, Wayne Chen, Wentworth Charles, Kathryn Phipps, and David Panton would be a very attractive proposition.

An alliance would benefit not only the parties but the nation. After 11 years of uncontested power the PNP has become fat and lazy. Separately the JLP or NDM have been ineffective, but together they might provide the challenge needed to get the political process moving again. Diehard comrades who want the PNP to rule forever would not like to see it happen and might even try to prevent it. But those who put country before party know that democracy cannot work without a credible opposition. And Jamaica’s is not working now.

The main obstacle to a JLP/NDM alliance seems to be their leaders’ egos. Yet whatever their disagreements, they need each other. Since Mr. Golding left the JLP both their fortunes have fallen. Mr. Seaga’s party has lost two elections and never even led in the polls - and it is a poor opposition which cannot win public favour throughout a 5 year recession. Mr. Golding’s party got only 5% of the vote in the 1997 elections and he lost his seat.

Many still consider Mr. Seaga the best economic manager around. But at 70 he cannot realistically be expected to continue in active politics for more than say another 5 years. Voters might be willing to trust him with power now - he is still the country’s second most popular politician. But what will happen when he retires?

He seems to feel that none of his current deputies can properly lead a national party, and the public agrees. When the Stone polls asked “who should succeed Edward Seaga as JLP leader”, no deputy got even 30% support. Mr. Golding was a close third despite not even being a JLP member.

Only he, Mr. Seaga, Portia Simpson and P.J. Patterson have ‘national’ status in the polls. So Mr. Golding would be the obvious heir-apparent in a united JLP/NDM. But considering the JLP’s recent vicious infighting, only Mr. Seaga’s authority could ‘make straight’ his path to eventual leadership.

It is unlikely that Mr. Seaga can preserve his legacy and go out on top without Mr. Golding’s aid. It is doubtful that Mr. Golding can achieve his prime ministerial ambitions without Mr. Seaga’s help. They have everything to win by uniting and nothing to lose but their vanity. They would frankly be fools not to at least try and work together in the next election.

Who would offer the first olive branch? Well Mr. Seaga was Mr. Golding’s political mentor. And when former colleagues quarrel it is easier for the older and hopefully wiser man to make the first overture of peace. It would also do Mr. Seaga’s image a world of good. Whatever the private reality the public sees him as a quarrelsome ‘one don’. Initiating dialogue would make him seem a magnanimous elder statesman willing to put past animosity aside in favour of the common good. If Mr. Golding made the first move he might look like a runaway schoolboy crawling back home in shame. The ball is really in Mr. Seaga’s court, though Mr. Golding has to be willing to talk. Both need to swallow their pride.

How could they avoid looking ridiculous? By manfully saying “we made mistakes but the past is behind us and we have worked out our differences”. A face saving formula for all involved should be easy to find if egos are buried and public humiliation avoided. Past verbal warfare might make everyone feel a bit foolish, but the national interest is worth a few blushes.

‘Separation of powers’ would be an obstacle only to extremists - in recent polls the idea got only 1% support. The day may come when Jamaicans want constitutional reform, but it is not here yet.

“Sankey” jokes and “unprincipled hypocrisy” pontifications would flood the airwaves, but such hullabaloos quickly die down. If the JLP and NDM united Jamaicans would be too glad at having a real alternative to care how it happened. Politics is the art of the possible, and necessity makes strange bedfellows. Electorates are generally forgiving about party shifts, as Karl Samuda has shown.

Winston Churchill more than once switched parties when, depending on how you see it, either his conscience left him no option or he sensed an irresistible opportunity. In 1901 he won a Conservative seat. But in 1904 he joined the Liberals - to cries of “opportunistic traitor” - and remained one until he lost his seat in 1922. He ran as an independent in 1924, losing to a Conservative. Later that year he won as a Conservative. But to history he is not “the party changer” but “freedom’s saviour”. If the great Churchill could cross lines to serve country, surely others can.

Good managers can solve difficult problems. If they wish to again hold real power and not remain in permanent opposition, Mr. Seaga and Mr. Golding must find a way to unite their parties. If they let common sense and duty prevail over egoism and hubris they might well win over the Jamaican electorate. But if stubbornness and pride triumph over logic and self-interest they will not only have failed themselves, they will have failed their country. changkob@hotmail.com