http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20111002/focus/focus4.html
Published: Sunday | October 2, 2011 

Andrew Holness rings the iconic Labourite bell at a rally at Stony Hill Square, St Andrew, in 2007.

Kevin O'Brien Chang, Contributor

Democracy is about listening to the people, and Bruce Golding has listened to the people. For the last 18 months or so, the polls have shown that Jamaicans do not want him as prime minister. No doubt, at first, he hoped it was a temporary thing which time and hard work would change. But poll after poll showed the populace's sentiments had hardened, and the message remained the same - Bruce, you must go. And now he is doing so.

Mr Golding is not the first politician to face such a situation. From 1989 to 2002, voters consistently told pollsters that they no longer saw Edward Seaga - no matter how great his past national contributions - as a valid alternative to lead the country. He paid no attention, and proceeded to lose four straight general elections - a situation perhaps unparalleled in Westminster democracy.

Most first-term leaders in Mr Golding's situation usually tough it out, muttering "a week is a long time in politics", and hoping that unforeseen events will turn matters around. In the 15 more months that he could have clung on, perhaps the world and Jamaican economy might have turned around. Or some bombshell scandal might hit the Opposition.

clutching at straws

Maybe further crime drops would have made a 'We made you safe' campaign tenable. Many a power-addicted leader has clutched at less-desperate straws than these.

In the context of Jamaican political history, Mr Golding has made a principled decision to put party and, by extension, country before personal ambition. His unprecedented move has unquestionably raised the bar for all future leaders, and charted the way for a new political culture. Nor can the history books fail to acknowledge and remember this.

He obviously handled the Manatt-Dudus affair badly, and many Jamaicans understandably blame their prime minister for the tough times they are experiencing. But nearly the whole Western world is suffering from a lack of growth and jobs. The economically literate see places like Greece beset with riots, strikes and looming default, and realise that without Mr Golding's stewardship, that could have been us. No wonder The Economist's verdict on him was: "And, sometimes almost despite himself, he has been Jamaica's most successful leader in decades." (http://www.economist.com/node/21531033)

My personal disappointment is that while murders fell under his regime, it was almost an accidental decline, and no concerted efforts were made to break the garrison backbone of crime. Yet though his deeds fell short of his words, Bruce Golding remains the only Jamaican politician to even talk about political reform. The lack of support he received from civil society, the media, the Opposition and his own party shows this country as a whole is not interested in real change.

But the king is dead, long live the king, and a new prime minister must be chosen. The consensus options seem to be Andrew Holness, Audley Shaw and Chris Tufton, with Bobby Montague a possible dark horse. All are intelligent, hard-working men who have performed well in their ministries. But the polls show Andrew Holness to be the public's overwhelming choice, and man-on-the-street vox pops reflect this.

Portia-like excitement

Indeed, Andrew is now creating the kind of excitement Portia did in 2006. Some even see glimpses of a 1972 Michael Manley. You hear things like "I never vote yet but I would vote for Mr Holness if he took over," and "I am a PNP but I would vote for Andrew".

The fact is Jamaicans are fed up with our political system and want change, and the most obvious change they see right now is one of age.

Despite his fine job as finance minister, Mr Shaw is seen as part of the past voters want to move away from. The people want Mr Holness, though you get a sense they would accept Mr Tufton. As one joker put it: "We try black man time. And woman time. Now is young people time!"

Unless Labourite officers and delegates are absolutely blind and deaf, they must realise that the support for the younger candidates is so strong that it would be political suicide for the JLP not to pick one of them. If the JLP does choose an old-guard member, it will confirm the suspicions of many that it really is captive to special interests, and so, should be booted out as soon as possible. If you do not listen to the people, you do not deserve to be in government.

Not that a new leader alone will solve the JLP's problems of arrogance and incoherent communication. No government, especially one thought by many to be protecting the vested interests of a minority elite, can hope to be re-elected while having an abrasive and often condescending information arm. This Labour administration seems unable to grasp the elementary principle that how you say it matters as much as, or more than, what you say.

For all his formidable intelligence, Bruce Golding was a communications dunce, clearly unable to understand that the very real accomplishments of his administration were not being effectively communicated to the common man. A Burns couplet sums up his essential problem: "Oh wad some power the giftie gie us/ To see oursel's as others see us!"

All leadership contenders seem to have a better grasp of marketing, especially Mr Holness. He must appear on the news twice as often as any other minister, which is probably why he is twice as popular as any other minister.

There is no substitute for political charisma. An indefinable thing that comes in many forms, it cannot be bought or learned. You either have it or you don't. Those without it - e.g. Norman Manley, Edward Seaga and Bruce Golding - will always have a very hard time getting the better of those who do - e.g. Bustamante, Michael Manley and Portia Simpson Miller. Mr Holness is one of those with this rare gift. But political charisma can also be a dangerous thing, since it can make voters easily led astray by impressive-sounding nonsense.

By all accounts, Mr Holness is a humble, level-headed man. But you have to wonder what effect ascending to the nation's highest office amid overwhelming acclaim would have on a relatively young person of 39. 'Power corrupts' is a cliché because it is true.

The Comrades who were recently chanting "Pack your bags and go" must now be ruefully remembering the adage, 'Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.' Either 'young knight in shining armour', Andrew, or 'fresh and clean' Chris will be a far tougher electoral proposition than 'ol bruck-down bus Driva' Bruce.

A bitter fight between Mr Holness and Mr Tufton could well destroy this administration's electoral chances, as well as its ability to govern. So the ideal situation for both the JLP and the country would be some kind of united front between them. To be sure, most politicians dream of the highest post but, as in everything else, only one can win.

Some in the past wondered if Mr Holness' reluctance to challenge for deputy leadership, as Mr Tufton did successfully, betrayed a 'want-to-go-to-heaven-but-afraid-to-die' lack of fire in the belly. True leaders do not wait on power, but seize it when the chance comes.

Right now, sentiment on the ground suggests the race is Mr Holness' to lose and, given his grass-roots popularity, he must certainly be the candidate the PNP fears the most. But the play has just begun and, no doubt, there may be many twists in the plot, and possibly unexpected endings.