About a month ago an angry Labourite accosted me. How, she asked, could I call the JLP “manifestly incompetent” when it has been leading in the Stone polls for over 18 months? Did I realize that its current 10 point lead among committed voters was larger than in September 1980, a month before it won a landslide victory? And how could Edward Seaga be ‘unpopular’ when he is the most popular choice for prime minister in the polls? And how could I say the JLP has no intelligent young black men when Ian Hayles, the country’s brightest political strategist, was Mr. Seaga’s chief advisor? And if the PNP was so damned intelligent, how come the murder rate had doubled and the roads had deteriorated and the economy had stagnated since 1989? And if the Labour shadow cabinet was inept, how would I describe the disastrous ministries of Bobby Pickersgill and K.D. Knight and Phillip Paulwell and Karl Blythe? Look at the facts, she demanded, and stop regurgitating PNP propaganda.

Well maybe she was right. Whatever anyone’s subjective feelings, a party with a substantial lead in the polls is by definition doing a better job than its rivals of winning electoral support. And nothing else really counts in politics.

By co-incidence I saw Ian Hayles on television last week and he certainly came across as very intelligent and politically experienced. And though this might be an admittance of prejudicial perceptions, I was surprised that someone from his background had not only chosen to join the JLP rather than the PNP, but had been selected by Mr. Seaga as his chief strategist.

All this made me wonder if my criticisms of the JLP shadow cabinet were not also based on pre-conceived notions. So I decided to take an objective look at how its members compare to their PNP counterparts.

Prime Minister – Both Edward Seaga and P.J. Patterson have flaws. While some consider Mr. Seaga the hardest working and most able prime minister Jamaica has known, he often seems to lack the energy, stamina, and clarity of 20 or even 10 years ago and many doubt he is still up to the job. After all the fact that Viv Richards was once the best batsman in the world doesn’t qualify him to play for the West Indies today. Of course Mr. Seaga’s supporters say his wife’s pregnancy shows age is only a number. And the polls do put him ahead of Mr. Patterson who, whatever his likeable qualities, appears to have a hard time making tough but necessary decisions. Surely K.D. Knight should have been replaced five years ago when crime began to mushroom out of control. Despite well publicized problems in the NHDC Karl Blythe was only pushed out after being shown to have wasted at least a billion dollars. And why was Phillip Paulwell allowed to keep his job after displaying such blatant, at the very least, incompetence?

Finance and Planning – Audley Shaw and Omar Davis are both intelligent men of integrity with a good grasp of economic realities.

National Security – Derrick Smith may not inspire confidence, but could anyone do a worse job than K.D. Knight under whose watch our murder rate more than doubled? And despite Dr. Peter Phillips reputation as “Mr. Performance”, murders were up substantially in the first quarter compared to last year.

Health – John Junor is doing a fine job. But Dr. Ken Baugh was a decent health minister in the 1980s and would likely be so again.

Education and Culture – Even the opposition has praised Burchill Whiteman. Yet Anthony Johnson speaks quite knowledgably about education matters and might make an equally good minister.

Agriculture – The practical Roger Clarke seems to understand farmers’ needs. But though perhaps no fault of his, this sector has not prospered over the past decade. Would it do worse under St. Elizabeth businessman and farmer J.C. Hutchinson?

Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade – K D Knight is articulate and well informed. But recent Ph.D. recipient and former foreign affairs minister Oswald Harding is also highly respected in the diplomatic community.

Industry, Commerce, and Technology - Phillip Paulwell’s ‘youthful exuberance’ has cost the country dear. It is hard to see how the experienced Karl Samuda could not be an improvement.

Information – There is no reason to prefer the controversial Colin Campbell to the media savvy Babsy Grange.

Justice – A J Nicholson would not seem to have anything over Rhodes scholar and author Delroy Chuck.

Labour and Social Security – Former minister and trade unionist Clifton Stone is an unknown quantity, but so is Dean Peart.

Lands and Environment – Horace Daley has won few plaudits, and there is no reason to think the young businessman Andrew Holness would not be at least as competent.

Local Government, Youth, and Community Development – the popular former minister and councilor Pearnel Charles stacks up well against Arnold Bertram.

Mining and Energy – Anthony Hylton appears a clever man. But the fact that Edward Seaga combines speaking on this area with his other duties shows it is not a demanding portfolio.

Tourism and Sports – Though popular, Portia Simpson has not done anything outstanding in the tourism sector. Ed Bartlett should at a minimum be able to maintain the status quo.

Transport and Works – I don’t know much about the lawyer Arthur Williams, but he would have to be a very poor administrator indeed to do worse than Bobby Pickersgill.

Water and Housing – Donald Buchanan has just taken over. But Ryan Peralto, and practically anyone else in the country, would be an improvement on Dr. Karl Blythe.

All in all the current cabinet is not obviously superior to its possible JLP successor. And with Rhodes Scholar and investment banker Dr. David Panton, university lecturer Dr. Ronald Robinson, businessman Michael Belnavis, and trade unionist Kavan Gayle waiting in the wings, Labour does seem to have as many ‘bright young things’ as the PNP. So perhaps I truly was wrong in labeling the JLP ‘incompetent’.

Of course you can’t help wondering about a party which keeps saying and doing things which make no sense even from the point of self-interest. And the JLP refuses to address the question of who will lead it if and when the 71 year old Mr. Seaga demits office. Still, there is a growing feeling that after Netserv and Operation Pride a Labour majority in the next election is all but certain if Mr. Seaga just shuts up for three months. Not everyone thinks he can do it, and perhaps he should remember the old adage that nothing is often a wise thing to do in politics and always a wise thing to say.

But who am I to criticize a leader whose party is 10 points ahead in the polls? changkob@hotmail.com