Early last year I heard Omar Davies speak at a business function and he was like Brian Lara in top form - straightforwardly driving home his points, deftly sweeping away all questions, and confidently defending attacks on his policies. The Jamaican economy seemed in safe hands.

Recently I attended a similar affair. But this time Omar reminded me of Courtney Walsh playing Shane Warne – stumbling in his presentation, hesitant in answering queries, and often befuddled by logistical questions about his budget. I left worried about our economic future and was not surprised to see the Jamaican dollar continue to slide. 

Now I am a qualified fan of Dr. Davies. In my opinion he has credibly steered Jamaica between the Scylla of hyperinflation and the Charybdis of depression. He may not have guided our economy into a Singaporean miracle but he has so far kept us away from Argentine disaster.

The country would no doubt be much better off today if he had dealt more promptly with financial sector problems, and been less willing to sacrifice economic imperatives on the altar of political expediency. He must have known that the reckless profligacy of his fellow ministers would come back to haunt him. For our current deficit problems are a direct result of the rushed orgy of infrastructure completions his party trumpeted in last year’s election run up. Does a finance minister who stands by as billions of dollars are squandered in ‘cost overruns’ on housing, road and water projects deserve any sympathy?

Of course that’s the way democracy works – incumbent governments nearly always try to buy their way to victory. But sensible finance ministers either stop their cabinet colleagues from doing permanent damage to the country’s economic future, or resign. Only fools accept baskets to carry other people’s water.

Dr. Davies last year dismissed warnings of a future piper to pay as alarmism. But at the conference he seemed a worried man - ‘deficits and debt’ he kept repeating as if in shellshock. He certainly looked tired and weary, reminding me of a fast bowler who has been left on for too long a spell.

But when P.J. Patterson contemplates replacing Omar Davies, he probably asks himself the same question that confronts Brian Lara whenever Jermaine Lawson gets tired – who do I put on instead? For while the ‘Omar must go’ chorus is getting louder, you don’t hear any credible potential replacements being named. I pointedly asked many people at the conference what would happen to the J$ if Omar resigned - some said it would stay where it was and others that it would decline, but none felt it would appreciate.

Frankly most people felt that the only other public figure who really understands the nuts and bolts workings of the Jamaican economy and has the energy to put the necessary measures in place is Bruce Golding. And if Mr. Golding was to become finance minister tomorrow the J$ would probably appreciate sharply. But naturally there is no chance of a PNP government putting a JLP member in charge of the economy.

Yet why does our constitution require the finance minister to be an elected member of parliament? After all the other ministries can be headed by appointed senators. Financial acumen and electioneering expertise are unrelated talents and changing this strange law would allow governments needed leeway in choosing the right person to run our economy. The Prime Minister should at least be able to consider private sector figures like Douglas Orane, Wayne Chen, or Omry Evans for the job. I am no fan of the American governmental system as a whole, but one reason for the US’s economic success is that its finance are run by non-politicians.

I was also struck by the mutual distrust between Dr. Davies and the business spokesmen present. Dr. Davies made a good point – how come so many Jamaican businesses claim to be running close to break even point when the streets are filled with expensive vehicles and banks are awash in high interest rate deposits? And it is disgusting to hear people living in mansions and driving luxury cars bawl about ‘government killing us’. But how much of the obvious wealth around is generated by the productive sector and how much comes from drugs and political largesse? A study is certainly needed. (Here is a painless tax suggestion: make the motor vehicle registration fee increasingly proportionate to a vehicle’s value – i.e 1% for a million, 2% for 2 million, 3% for 3 million and so on. What is $90,000 to a 3 million dollar car owner? )

And yet both high and low in Jamaica make the same constant complaint – why should I give this government my hard earned money when all it does is waste and steal it? Has even one person been held legally accountable for the billions gone missing in scandals like Netserv and Operation Pride? I recently came face to face with this pervasive public suspicion of the government. Virtually all the staff at my pharmacies adamantly urged me not to sign up for the proposed National Health Plan. “Watch and see first.” they maintained. “You can’t trust government. They don’t pay their bills on time, and sometimes you never get what they owe you at all.”

Also worrying was Dr. Davies obvious lack of understanding of how the businesses he is taxing work. Gaming representatives for instance said their computer software could not possibly accommodate the proposed tax changes in so short a period. The finance ministry definitely needs more people who have hands on experience of how businesses are run in practice as opposed to in economic textbooks.

We need to study the Mauritius model, where government and business interests confer over a three month period before the budget so that all concerns can be mutually sorted out in advance. For this private and public sector gap must be bridged. The Jamaican economy cannot prosper if politicians and businessmen continue to see each other more as zero sum competitors than joint enterprise partners. changkob@hotmail.com