http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20050220/focus/focus3.html
Published: Sunday | February 20, 2005

A YEAR AGO, P.J. Patterson was sitting pretty. Crime was falling ­ 1139 murders in 2001, 1045 in 2002, 975 in 2003. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) was in its usual disarray with the ageing Edward Seaga showing no signs of going anywhere. The move to repatriate Jamaica's legal system by doing away with the Privy Council as last court of appeal seemed to be going smoothly. And his planned handover of the People's National Party (PNP) leadership and hence the post of prime minister to Peter Phillips was right on track.

BEST LAID PLANS

He must be wondering how it could all have gone so horribly wrong in 12 months. The murder rate has skyrocketed by 50 per cent, Bruce Golding is on course to take over an apparently united Labour Party. The British Law Lords have essentially told Mr. Patterson to 'faggit' about removing the Privy Council option without a referendum. And the PNP hierarchy and rank and file seem to be at loggerheads over who will succeed him.

Well as Robert Burns noted so long ago, the best laid plans are apt to go astray. PJ's great mistake was probably hanging around too long. There seems to be some kind of general rule of history that 10 years at the top is where you should stop. It's not ironclad of course, but nearly all leaders do the bulk of their good work in their first 10 years and those who insist on holding on any longer more often than not regret it.

For power not only corrupts, it makes you complacent and causes you to lose touch. It's tough to keep abreast of changing times when you are ensconced in the gilded cocoon that encases every head of state.

Whatever Mr. Patterson's faults, no leader has listened more carefully to his people. But with the Privy Council issue, he has lifted his ears off the ground.

The common Jamaican man doesn't care a hoot about the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ).

Almost none of those I've asked know anything about it, and most who do care seem to favour keeping the Privy Council last appeal option. As one man put it to me "Bwoy, de Englishman dem know bout dem ting better than anybody else, so we might as well leave it wid dem".

There's nothing permanent in life and surely one day we must become complete masters of our own legal house. It's only a matter of when. But not only does this nation have many more pressing issues to deal with than the Privy Council last appeal, but the majority of Jamaicans seem to clearly feel "we not ready for that yet".

Deep down Mr. Patterson probably knows this, otherwise he wouldn't have so strenuously rejected the idea of a referendum. But his desire for a place in history as the man who repatriated the Jamaican legal system seems to have got the better of him.

His wisest option right now is probably to allow the CCJ to fulfill the role originally planned for it as an arbitrator for the CARICOM Single Market And Economy (CSME). Let his and Mr. Seaga's successors deal with a final court of appeal issue which the nation is probably a decade or two away from taking seriously.

The Labourite situation is now pretty clear. The delegates' list brouhaha is already a distant memory, and cynics are muttering that Pearnel Charles' challenge was just a setup to keep out other challengers and to get his brother in law some media attention.

Whatever the case, Golding now has a golden opportunity to remake the JLP into the transparent, accountable and disciplined party he has long talked about creating.

Seldom has any political leader been granted such a tabula raisa on which to stamp his/her personality and principles. Golding has been talking the good talk for a decade. Now he has no excuse not to walk the walk.

THE PNP DRAMA

On the comrade side, however, things look decidedly cloudy. Phillips' star has waned as dramatically as the crime rate has soared. The once confidence inspiring 'Mr. Performance' is now derided by many as a mealy mouthed blunderer who is all 'bag a mouth' and no action.

Fair or not, the public view is that the buck stops at the top and that the minister of security must take a good part of the blame for last year's frightening murder increase. Dr. Phillips was certainly not shy in taking credit for positive events at his previous ministries. And as they say, same knife stick goat stick sheep.

Unless the crime rate falls significantly this year, Dr. Phillips would have as much chance of beating Golding in an election as a boxer with one hand tied behind his back has of winning a fight.

Popularity polls say the PNP candidate with the best chance of winning a 'fifth' term is definitely Portia Simpson. Yet it's no secret that she by no means enjoys the confidence of party insiders.

Reportedly the thought of her facing Golding in a one-on-one nationally televised debate gives some of them the shivers. I know nothing about Ms. Simpson except what I read and hear and see in the press. Certainly she comes across as a very bright and hugely charismatic lady.

But when public figures do not enjoy the full support of those who work with them on an every day basis, it makes people very wary and suspicious. Is it merely jealousy, or do all those dark whisperers know something that we don't?

OMAR IS THE MAN

The PNP leadership contender who inspires the most confidence in me is Omar Davies. He has undoubtedly made mistakes in his stewardship of the economy, but he has done the most important thing ­ namely made tough calls and stuck with them. Too often in the past, our finance ministers have shied away from making unpopular but necessary choices and chopped and changed course at every public outcry.

Say what you will about Dr. Davis, he knows how to hold a hard end. He appears the only prominent politician bold enough to back his opinions. Since what this country needs right now is a man willing to make hard decisions, he has my vote for prime minister.

Unfortunately not many Jamaicans seem to share my view. When I do informal vox pops about Dr. Davies the same words always come up ­ arrogant, bumptious, does not listen to others. In fact as I joked with a friend the other day, Dr. Davies is pretty much seen as a black Seaga!

Mr. Seaga's skin shade was not nearly his biggest drawback ­ most Jamaicans care more about your commitment than your colour and no one has dedicated his life more completely to serving this nation than Mr. Seaga. No, Eddie's biggest problem was that in Jamaican politics respect is not enough.

Most people here have to love or at least like you before they vote for you. And Jamaicans don't like tough bosses. As with spoilt children, they prefer to be indulged, even if it's to their long term detriment.

They have consistently rejected leaders who point out unpleasant facts and demand sacrifices in favour of those who make sweet, soothing promises.

Which is why Michael Manley is both statistically by far the worst prime minister in our history and the most loved. So while my heart is with Omar, my money is on Portia.