A pioneer in Jamaican anthropology; a driving force behind the local and international popularization of ska and reggae; an originator of Festival; arguably our best finance minister; the prime minister with the third longest term in office; the longest serving parliamentarian - no one has influenced independent Jamaica in so many ways as Edward Seaga.

Politicians generally see themselves as servants of the people who have given their all to their country, and often echo Napoleon’s words : “All my life I have sacrificed everything – comfort, self-interest, happiness – to my destiny”. Amidst all the cynicism of politics, there remains something noble about the idea of persons dedicating themselves completely to a public and not private cause.

Mr. Seaga is probably no less driven or intelligent than say Butch Stewart or Michael Lee-Chin. He might well have achieved comparable financial success had he spent all his time on personal business. But instead of concentrating on getting rich, he devoted himself to his country. Posterity does not measure men by money. So let us salute Edward Seaga’s declaration that he will resign as JLP leader in November. Ave atque vale - Hail and farewell.

Skeptics say this announcement is only a diversionary response and that Mr. Seaga intends to resume fighting for his position if circumstances become more favourable. But whatever the inner sanctum realities, it seems clear from the outside that such a delaying tactic could only be a postponement of the inevitable. When the people speak, politicians who desire electoral success must listen. And it’s been increasingly evident for the past 18 months or so that the Jamaican electorate does not want Mr. Seaga as JLP leader. Unless the Labour hierarchy and delegates are craven fools who desire to remain in perpetual opposition, they will make sure that Mr. Seaga does not captain them in the next election. For that would almost certainly mean a fifth straight general election defeat. The facts suggest that Mr. Seaga has two choices – leave gracefully or be humiliatingly forced out.

As someone who considers him a great Jamaican, I hope Mr. Seaga doesn’t go down the ‘I’ll destroy everyone in this house including myself’ Sampson route. His bitter letter to Bruce Golding was nonsense – when since 1989 has the JLP not been divided? And it smacked of ‘apres moi le deluge’ solipsism. Surely he values his reputation, and history admires dignified exits.

Even his friends must now realize that Mr. Seaga has stayed on too long. Only flashes of his legendary sharpness of mind and driving energy remain. At times his public performances bring to mind the famous 1954 Punch magazine ‘Immortality’ cartoon of the frail 79 year old Winston Churchill struggling up the House of Commons aisle. Everyone’s time must come. As Charles De Gaulle said, “The graveyards are full of indispensable men”.

Bruce Golding is unquestionably the people’s choice to succeed Mr. Seaga. Unless the JLP powers that be are utter morons, they will work out some mechanism for first making him party leader and then getting him the parliamentary seat he needs to become leader of the opposition. There’s nothing unprecedented here. Norman Manley was PNP leader in 1944 without a seat. Omar Davis parachuted into the St. Andrew Southern seat in 1993. Political junkies will argue over operational logistics, but only the end result matters to the general populace.

Detractors say Mr. Golding has no cojones. They claim JLP young Turks are forcing the issue while he remains a cautious, afraid to stick his head out tortoise in a shell. Well the time is nigh for him to prove them wrong, or right. If the JLP leadership transition goes smoothly, a big if on past performance, Mr. Golding will have to demonstrate enough intestinal fortitude to stamp out the JLP’s notorious infighting and forge a team mixing old guard experience and fresh faced enthusiasm.

Some charge, however, that the JLP executive is not representative of Jamaicans. A truly democratic party should to an extent reflect a nation’s ethnic make-up. Yet while Jamaica is a mostly black country, the JLP hierchy is – at least visually - predominantly non-black. When I pointed this out once to Bruce Golding he testily accused me of questioning his blackness and of promoting affirmative action. But though an unpleasant reality, it’s one which the JLP ignores at its own peril.

The PNP in contrast to the JLP has been noted for organizational discipline. Until recently most envisaged a seamless handover from P.J. Patterson to Peter Phillips. But an almost 50% increase in year to date murders – and possibly unconfirmed but widely gossiped personal problems - has dimmed Mr. Phillips’ star. And while Portia Simpson is popular in the polls, she is not so well liked by the party powerful, as K.D. Knight has made obvious. With the heir apparent and the people’s choice suddenly on shaky ground, Mr. Patterson’s departure could well be attended by the kind of infighting normally seen in green. Even now verandah talk has Omar Davis as the new front runner, with a Portia Simpson and Karl Blythe alliance as his chief obstacle.

Those of us who normally don’t pay much attention to politics except during elections are not averse to a new drama with different stars. Our politicians are after all rubbish at governing the country, so they can at least earn their keep by entertaining us. But first let’s see if Mr. Seaga keeps his word. changkob@hotmail.com