http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20070902/focus/focus3.html
Published: Sunday | September 2, 2007

Only he knows why, but God sure loves this country. Once more a potentially catastrophic hurricane headed straight for middle stump, swung away at the last minute and merely brushed us. My sympathies are with the unfortunates who were flooded out and had roofs blown off and crops washed away. But had 'Dean' not changed course, the suffering would have been a hundred times worse than it was.

Most of Mandeville was without electricity or running water for over a week. And, while the good old days sound like fun in folk songs like Evening Time and Banyan Tree, the novelty of pan bathing and reading by candles quickly pale. Everyone loves to moanand groan about the evils of the modern age. But even that brief spell of no water or light has me thinking that maybe the times we live in are not so bad after all.

When Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller set the election date for August 27 most observers were stunned. No previous leader had ever called on Jamaicans to vote during the hurricane peak months of August or September.

Well, now we know why. Only the idiotic or foolhardy tempt fate, and thanks to this inexplicable decision, the nation is now forced to go to the polls in most inauspicious conditions.

Sick of politics

But even though many still are without current or water, the dominant feeling is better now than later. Most Jamaicans are heartily sick of politics and just want to get it over with. What once was fun has become sheer tedium. Having been in constant election mode since last March, the populace is simply worn out and just wants to get back to the normal aggravations of life.

Who will win? Both history and the numbers say 'Labour'. Every Jamaican government that has lost a local government election - as the People's National Party (PNP) did in 2003 -- has lost the next general election.

Don Anderson, the most accurate pollster in 2002, has not yet put out his final standings. But his last poll says the PNP's lead has shrunk to one per cent. Mark Wignall and Bill Johnson have the JLP in front by 11 points and 4 points, respectively. (See table above).

Considering that in 2002 both predicted a double-digit PNP victory and the actual margin was only 4.5 per cent, well, the Comrades appear to be in a spot of bother.

First-time voters

My soundings on the ground also suggest a green breeze blowing, as the vast majority of people I ask say change is in the air.

Those who get around a lot like taxi drivers and salesmen are particularly adamant about this.

The real contest is apparently not Portia versus Bruce or 'shower' versus 'power', but five versus 23.

Most Jamaicans just don't seem very comfortable with the idea of one party being in power for close to a quarter century, which will be the case if the PNP wins again.

Yes, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has run a pretty good campaign and Bruce Golding keeps growing in stature, while Prime Minister Simpson-Miller's shaky performance in the debates and dismal handling of post-Hurricane Dean matters has not helped the government's cause.

But this was always the JLP's election to lose, mainly because Jamaicans treasure their democracy and two consecutive decades of one party in charge reminds them too much of Castro and Cuba.

If the young vote as they are talking, the JLP will probably win close to 40 seats or more. For the under-30 crowd are overwhelmingly in the 'Labour' camp, especially first time voters.

For some, it's anger with the government at not being able to get a job, despite securing the education that was supposed to guarantee one.

But for most, it's sheer curiosity. Time and again, I've heard "Ever since I know myself it's been the PNP in power and I just want to see what it would be like to live under a JLP government".

Yet, youth is notoriously fickle, and you have to wonder if all those green band wearing youngsters actually have a vote. Most of those I ask say they do and will.

Now, I'm no Nostradamus or even Prophet Phinn. But I will be stunned if the JLP loses this election and so will most unbiased commentators. The only people talking confidently of a PNP victory are those who claim Portia outdebated Bruce.

One telling factor is the difference in confidence between party supporters. Comrades nervously murmur that it's close, but they hope to pull out a close victory. Labourites loudly declare that it's only a matter of how far they win by.

According to my orange friend Clifford, "Well, I wouldn't be surprised if the JLP won, but I still think we are going to do it".

My green friend Fitz says "I am 99.9 per cent sure that the JLP is going to win this election and that Sally is taking Central!".

One-woman show

Apart fromDanny Buchanan - whom Gleaner columnist Vernon Daley dubbed 'Comical Danny' after the former Iraqi War Information Minister 'Comical Ali' - Simpson-Miller has campaigned almost single-handedly. Where are Omar, and Peter and Maxine? Or even Phillip or Colin or A.J.?

The biggest splash Bobby Pickersgill has made in this campaign is on those "It's that time of month" and "Remember I toll you" billboards in Portmore. Whether those rumours about 'Comrades against Portia' or a Cabinet dustup are true or not, this PNP campaign has been largely a one-woman show. If Portia can carry her entire team on her back for the full derby distance and cross the winning post in front, she will truly be a 'Miracle Woman'.

On the other hand, Golding keeps bringing to mind the fable of the tortoise and the hare. Ever since he left the JLP to form the National Democratic Movement over 12 years ago, he has stuck by his new and different mantra through thick and thin. He's shrugged off the mockery and scorn and indifference and just kept singlemindedly plodding along. And, suddenly here he is on the verge of becoming Jamaica's eighth Prime Minister.

Accept the result

As for me, well I'm one of those who feel 23 years of any party is too long for comfort, especially since the PNP has not exactly produced Singaporean levels of growth and development since 1989. In my opinion Mr. Golding and his new-look JLP deserve a shot at putting their money where their mouth is. He's certainly displayed a better command of the issues than Simspon-Miller.

Whatever the outcome, let's hope it all goes peacefully and that the loser accepts the results as gracefully as has been the tradition in Jamaican politics. Let's put our x against the bell or head with vigour. And if the team elected proves not up to the task, well in five years time we can put our X elsewhere and vote them out. A lovely thing, democracy.