http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20070225/focus/focus2.html
Published: Sunday | February 25, 2007

"In politics, nothing is often a good thing to do and always a good thing to say." - Will Durant

A year ago, Portia Simpson Miller was chosen as president of the People's National Party and Prime Minister-designate to the kind of popular acclaim not seensince Michael 'Joshua' Manley's 1972 election victory. Since then crime has fallen, tourist arrivals have set a record, and the economy has grown at its fastest rate in years.

Maybe she's not responsible for any of these. But had the reverse occurred she would have got the blame. So based strictly on what's happened on her watch, Portia has been a success.

Yet, the other day when she came on the radio a young lady attending to me reflexively hissed her teeth and exclaimed "She doesn't have a clue!"

"The worst thing ever happen to Jamaica!" a colleague beside her added. Two straws in the wind. But a lot of people share their feelings these days.

Initial popularity

Which proves again that words are often just as important as actions. Had Portia governed in relative silence like her predecessor P. J. Patterson, she would have retained far more of her initial popularity. But her inability to hold her tongue has cost her much support, especially among the uncommitted.

The PM's spending on foreign trips was a newspaper filler non-event, until her "My husband gives me a credit card" remarks. Now The Gleaner cartoon showing her half-undressed was an insult to Mrs. Simpson Miller, the dignity of women, and the office of Prime Minister. The same blurbs with her in a market higgler dress would have been entirely appropriate. But nearly everyone I know found the barefoot, breast-revealing, belly-skin drawing offensive. But the fact remains that had Mrs. Simpson Miller said nothing, the 'spending' story would have been a one-day wonder.

Forgotten scandal

Similarly, the Trafigura affair would likely now be just another forgotten scandal had it been handled more deftly. I still think there was something very irregular about these Nigerian oil dealings, and that Jamaican taxpayers received only a fraction of the money due to us. A British shipping journalist told me by email that the supposed 'best deal available' 12 cents per barrel is about one-tenth the going rate. Furthermore, three different buy and sell spread figures were quoted on radio by the same Petrojam connected person. I wonder if Opposition spokesmen and our financial papers did sufficient digging into the numbers.

Media commentators have a moral duty to vigorously highlight any potential malfeasance by public officials. Yet, voters everywhere assume a certain amount of governmental graft. The question is always, would the other side have acted differently? Most people in these cynical times assume not. The outrage and questions would likely have vanished, had the public been fed a consistent story.

But if the PNP did nothing wrong, why did Colin Campbell resign as Minister of Information? And how could he be allowed to remain as a senator after having to resign his ministerial position? He is either fit to represent the people, or not. A fish can't be fresh and rotten at the same time.

But the most politically damaging aspect was party general secretary and Prime Minister Mrs. Simpson Miller's "Ask the PNP!" response to the question of whether the $31 million 'donation' had been returned to Trafigura, suggested that while she clearly revels in the trappings and adulation of power, she is less than willing to accept the full responsibilities of her office.

But the buck must stop at the top. We already have a ceremonial Governor-General. If Portia keeps getting upset when she's criticised and acting like she doesn't really want to be in charge and doesn't want to make tough decisions, well, the voters will soon relieve her of these troubles and trials.

Yet, no cup no bruk, no coffee no dash way. For all the breakfast veranda talk of the chattering classes, Portia's verbal gaffes are in the large scheme of things relatively minor blunders. She may not have actually done much, but neither has she made any serious errors. The fear that she might be a fiscally irresponsible 'class war' populist has so far proven groundless.

Mrs. Simpson Miller has been greatly aided by an ineffectual JLP Opposition that seems unwilling or unable to give the populace clear reasons to vote for it. Crime, for instance, is the country's biggest problem and the Government's greatest Achilles heel. It's probably the main issue on which the next election will be won or lost.

Yet, not even JLP officials can remember much about last year's much-vaunted MacMillan Plan. Security Shadow Minister Derrick Smith recently indulged in some 'We'll hang 'em' high!" ironfist posturing. Which is fine, since that's what the public wants. But this hardly constitutes a programme. It's amazing really, that with elections due in a few months, the Opposition still has not articulated a coherent and convincing crime-fighting platform.

For good or bad, a government's record always speaks for itself. An effective Opposition must create a strong vision in the public's mind of exactly what it represents. But the JLP is so hazy on most issues that people generally have no clue what would change, other than faces, were it to form the next government.

There is a general '17 years is enough' malaise in the air. But its inability to stay on message means few people feel confident that a JLP government would improve matters. The polls reflect this. The PNP's stock has fallen steadily since the heady days of last March's Portiamania. But the JLP's ratings have barely budged.

Which is almost astonishing. Given Jamaica's world-leading murder rate, our terrible roads, and 17 years of minimal economic growth, a self-respecting opposition should be well ahead.

The current scenario brings to mind a close boxing match where no one is quite sure who is ahead. The JLP probably leads slightly on points. But a couple good blows could easily see the Government ahead on all cards. And the reigning champion usually ekes out close decisions.

Suppose Cricket World Cup 2007 goes off without any major hitches and the West Indies somehow manage to win and Portia then calls an immediate election to capitalise on the feel good factor? The PNP would likely be in the cat bird's seat. But it's a mighty optimistic politician who would stake their future on the world's most inconsistent team putting it all together for a solid month.

So in lieu of that miracle, Ms. Portia Simpson Miller should take a page from the P.J. Patterson school of politics and speak only when necessary, such as to announce new policy initiatives. It certainly worked for him. Whatever his faults, Mr. Patterson is the only Jamaican leader never to lose a general election.

On the other hand, Mr. Golding needs to tell the people how his party plans to cut crime in language they can understand and remember. Surely, after four straight defeats the JLP must realise that 'Vote for us because we're not the PNP' is not a winning strategy.

What would get my vote is a firm commitment to, say, create a national DNA database with appropriate legislation, a la Britain, pass 'three strikes you're out' laws, build more prisons, and reduce pregnancy among uneducated teenagers. In other words 'Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime'.