Who was Jamaica’s greatest prime minister? This may be an unanswerable question, for politics has many facets. Who did more for their country, Gandhi or Lee Kwan Yew?

So here is a simpler topic - which PM did the best job of improving Jamaicans’ quantifiable economic and social lot?

The most widely used measure for comparing countries’ development is the UNDP Human Development Index, which combines life expectancy, illiteracy, and per capita income. TABLE 1 below gives these figures for each prime ministerial regime.

Since crime is a critical issue in Jamaica homicide rates are included as a key measure of governance. World averages are also supplied for comparison purposes. No world homicide figures are available so USA murder statistics are used instead.

Jamaican measures are then divided by world measures to give a proportionate comparison. A number greater than one means Jamaica did better than the rest of the world. A figure below one means we were worse than average. For homicide of course the reverse is true.

The HDI uses per capita GNP based on purchasing power parity. But this is not available from 1962, so raw constant dollar GNP figures are used here. And while the informal sector plays a significant role in the Jamaican economy, no official data is available on our ‘black market’.

(Sources : World Bank, Jamaica Constabulary, USA Bureau of Justice Statistics. Data used: Life Expectancy at birth, Literacy Rate for adults 15 and above, Gross National Product per Capita in constant 1995 US dollars, Homicide Rate per 100,000 inhabitants. Life expectancy and GNP figures start in 1962, but literacy rates are available only from 1970. Other measures end at 1998, but homicide statistics go up to 1999. In computing Jamaican homicide rates the 1980 rate of 41.58 is treated as an aberration. The 1979 and 1981 rates are averaged for calculation purposes. All data has been analyzed without bias and every effort has been made to ensure accuracy.)

So Jamaicans lived 19% longer than the world average in 1962 and 12% longer in 1998. We were 23% more literate than the earth mean in 1970 and 14% more so in 1998. These slight declines are not surprising for a country starting from a high base.

In 1962 the average Jamaican earned 46% as much as the average world citizen. By 1980 it had fallen to 31%. Officially Jamaicans are still 25% poorer on the average than in 1972. Jamaica had a lower homicide rate than the USA up to 1972. It is now almost six times as great.

TABLE 2 below calculates the annual rate of change in life expectancy, literacy, per capita GNP, and homicide rate for each prime ministerial regime. For life expectancy, literacy, and per capita GNP positive is good. For the homicide rate the opposite is true.

World growth rates are also calculated for life expectancy, literacy and per capita GNP. These are then subtracted from the Jamaican rates to show how well we performed in a global perspective. A positive number means Jamaica performed better than the rest of the world. A negative number means we performed worse.

For homicide purposes the Jamaican rate was subtracted from the USA rate. A positive number here means our homicide rate grew at a slower rate than America’s. A number negative means ours grew faster. (Homicide comparisons between Jamaica and the USA are likely not valid after 1992 when USA rates began to plummet due to massive imprisonment increases. So a USA rate change of zero is used for 1993-1999 differences.)

The differentials in all categories are totaled for each administration and they are then ranked.

There is not much difference among regimes on life expectancy and literacy. All administrations have done relatively good jobs in health and education.

During the Bustamante / Sangster administration Jamaica’s per capita GNP rose at an average annual rate of 2.25%, but this was 1.06% less than the world average of 3.31%. The average homicide rate increase was 7.90%, 1.74% greater than the USA’s 6.15%.

Under Shearer’s stewardship Jamaica’s economy grew 4.68% faster each year than the world average and our murder rate grew .18% less each year than America’s. His was the only administration where Jamaica became better off on an overall global basis.

During the 1970s’ Manley regime the Jamaican economy fell in relative terms at an annual rate of 6.83% while the homicide rate rose at 9.07%. Jamaica suffered its greatest relative decline during this period.

Under Seaga relative per capita GNP fell by .50% and murder rose by .79% each year.

The 1990’s Manley government saw comparative annual economic growth of 1.5% while homicide increased at an average of 10.21%.

During the Patterson administration the economy declined relatively by .78% each year and murder increased at a 3.6% rate to the end of 1999.

Overall the Edward Seaga, Alexander Bustamante / Donald Sangster and P. J. Patterson regimes present similar pictures, with Jamaica declining slightly on a global basis. The figures were slightly worse for the 1990s Michael Manley government. But the numbers unequivocally rank Hugh Shearer as Jamaica’s most effective Prime Minister and the 1970s Michael Manley as the least successful.

There will always be controversy about who should get credit for what. Some leaders reap the benefit of good policies implemented by predecessors. Others inherit disasters not of their own making. But if those in power get the blame when things go wrong, then they deserve the praise when things go right.

The above figures are far from definitive and in a sense simplistic. For they ignore factors like immigration shifts, oil shocks, cold war disturbances, aluminum market collapses, debt, foreign aid, natural disasters, criminal deportations, drug gang wars, and financial crises. Perhaps our academics can give us a more sophisticated in depth study taking all factors into account.

But though numbers alone never tell the whole story, they do speak without political bias. And hopefully these figures can provide a starting point for evaluating our leaders in a non-partisan manner. changkob@hotmail.com copyright kevin o'brien chang