Is Jamaica better off today that it was when the PNP came to power 11 years ago? The facts say no. In 1988 there were 414 murders in Jamaica, the economy grew by 5%, and it took less than 6 Jamaican dollars to buy 1 US dollar. In 1999 there were 848 murders, the economy shrunk and the exchange rate was 42 to 1. A government with such a dismal record should have no chance of being re-elected. Yet the PNP is odds on to win its fourth consecutive term.

There are obvious political reasons for this. The JLP is utterly disorganized with a highly unpopular leader, while the NDM behaves more like a think tank than a political party. But race is also a factor.

Jamaica is one of the most racially tolerant countries on earth. But though we aspire to it, we have not yet achieved Martin Luther King’s ideal of judging each man solely by the content of his character and ignoring the colour of his skin. Only a few years ago upper St. Andrew verandah gossipers laughed that the PNP could not make P.J. Patterson leader because Jamaicans would never vote for a black prime minister. Now they accuse Mr. Patterson of racism for telling crowds he looks like them. In other quarters Edward Seaga’s ‘black scandal bag’ taunt has never been forgiven.

One of the few to publicly broach the topic is Lloyd B. Smith. He honestly admits that though his political views are out of sync with the PNP’s, as a black man he is far more at home among the top echelons of the PNP than the JLP or NDM. If an educated man trying to view politics rationally can feel this way, the sentiment is likely much stronger among the masses to whom politics is more emotion than reason. And in the Stone polls 10% of respondents do state a strong preference for a black leader.

Very few countries have elected a minority head of state, and perhaps only Jamaica has done it more than once. The remarkable fact is not that many Jamaicans prefer a prime minister of their race, but that most don’t care what he looks like. Yet even 10% is often an insurmountable lead in a free and fair election. So Jamaica may never have another prime minister who is not black or who is not surrounded by black heir-apparents.

Perhaps the defining points of the 1997 elections were the televised debates, featuring P.J. Patterson, Edward Seaga and Bruce Golding as  party leaders and Omar Davis and Burchell Whiteman, Audley Shaw and Delroy Chuck, and Wayne Chen and Christopher Tufton as deputies. All conducted themselves well. But none stood out and it seemed a draw all around. Yet 38% of those polled picked P.J. Patterson as the most impressive leader, with 18% each choosing Seaga and Golding.

One can interpret this in many ways. But perhaps most people felt the leaders were equally matched rationally and simply went for the one who looked most like them. Is it not human nature, when all else is equal, to subconsciously side with those who resemble you outwardly?

The NDM would protest that Bruce Golding’s father was black and so is his wife. But the television reality was 3 black PNP candidates, 3 light brown NDM candidates and white, chinese and light brown JLP candidates.’ In fact TV showed only part of the truth. For the PNP top brass also includes Portia Simpson, Peter Phillips and Phillip Paulwell. Where are their JLP and NDM counterparts? No wonder rum bars loudly proclaim that ‘PNP is the black man party!’.

Why has the PNP become the almost automatic party of choice for the majority of intelligent, political minded black Jamaicans? This is a question the opposition parties must ask themselves. There is no effect without a cause.

Except for the NDM’s incoherent constitutional reform agenda, there is little policy difference between our current parties. Everyone realizes that globalization is a worldwide fact of life and that a country of 2.5 million people in a planet of 6 billion is a straw in a hurricane. Like it are not we have to become members of the one world economy, which basically means liberalizing our economy and increasing productivity.

P.J. Patterson’s recent speech blaming rich countries for poor ones’ woes was hypocritical rubbish. From 1990-1998 Jamaica’s GDP grew at an annual rate of .2%. Yet the similarly small ex-colonial islands of Mauritius, Singapore and Trinidad grew at rates of 5.2%, 8.5%, and 1.6% respectively. Their growth rates far surpassed ours because their governments delivered the necessary economic medicine early and effectively and did not try to protect the vested interests of cronies with cosmetic half-measures.

But though Mr. Patterson’s PNP is poor at governing, it is good at campaigning. The PNP at least unites in its own self-interest and tells the people what they want to hear. Why should voters trust the JLP with power when its members don’t trust each other? Or give the NDM a chance to implement extremist constitutional schemes it can’t even explain properly?

Jamaican voters are not foolish. They would vote for any clearly superior alternative, no matter the class, colour, creed or sex of its leaders. But right now we are forced to pick the best of a bad bunch. On a scale of 1 to 10 the government rates a 5 at best. But the opposition deserves no more than 2 each. If you can’t manage yourself, how can you manage a country?

Then there are the ‘garrison’ constituencies where a party is overwhelmingly dominant and its defeat almost unthinkable. There are presently 2 such JLP seats and 10 PNP ones, meaning only 48 are really democratically contested. Add this to the PNP’s better racial representation and organization and a change of government in the foreseeable future seems increasingly unlikely.

Is the PNP becoming a Jamaican equivalent of South Africa’s ANC, with electoral defeat inconceivable? This is a worrying thought, for de facto one party states rarely prosper and are nearly always highly corrupt. Only the thought of possible defeat makes elected politicians put the welfare of the people before personal aggrandizement.

Jamaica has already witnessed a litany of public sector scandals under this PNP regime – the overpriced furniture, the shell waiver, FINSAC, the ‘fat cat’ salary dispute and more. None have been transparently investigated and none will be until the JLP and NDM convincingly re-invent themselves and pose a credible electoral threat.

So the greedy pigs of patronage continue to feed happily at the tax payers’ trough, knowing that even if caught nothing will be done. Not caring that they are also eating away at the fabric of Jamaican society. And who is to blame? changkob@hotmail.com