Our next general election might be the closest since independence. And given the quirks of Westminster and our “garrison” constituency phenomenon, all sorts of scenarios are possible. Here for instance the most recent Stone and Anderson polls are extrapolated over the 1997 constituency results.

(e.g. Using Stone the PNP loses 109,237 votes, or 25% of its 1997 total. The JLP gains 79,662 or 73% of these. Other gains 29,575 or 27% of these. Each 1997 constituency count is re-calculated using these percentages.)

So with the Stone polls a slight JLP lead results in a 45 to 15 JLP seat victory. While with Anderson a slight PNP vote advantage actually translates into a 32 to 28 JLP seat win.

These counter-intuitive figures are partly due to the inherent mathematics of the first past the post Westminster system. But they are mostly a product of “garrison” constituencies, where through violent intimidation one party consistently gains a huge majority no matter what the national vote. “Garrisons” are already depriving many Jamaicans of their constitutional right to freely vote for the party of their choice. And if they continue to multiply they must in time destroy our democracy, for a party with enough “garrisons” could never lose an election.

Now in 1997 one party gained over two thirds of the votes cast in 11 seats.

Not all of these are violent “garrisons”. For some of these seats are made “safe” by particular historical circumstances, or the judicious use of taxpayer's money in the form of patronage. But lopsided constituencies distort the overall figures and increase the possibility of a party winning a seat majority while losing the popular vote.

Now since we have an even number of constituencies a tie in seats is also possible. Here is a model based on 1997 constituency results.

This is the kind of deadheat Trinidad recently experienced. Of course Trinidad has a far more robust economy than Jamaica, and much less political violence. Even so persistent gridlock is beginning to take a serious toll. Its bond ratings for instance have been sharply lowered. But perhaps worst of all unresolved tensions that now have no formal outlet are being bottled up for a future possible explosion.

No one can predict what effect a similar deadlock would have on Jamaica. But given the tribal violence that plagues our politics at the best of times and the sometimes uncontrollable emotions that elections engender, one shudders to think what might happen if no party wins a seat majority. And who knows what effect a legislature in limbo might have on our decidedly fragile economy?

Surely we should see Trinidad’s crisis as a warning. And the powers that be should by now have convened a committee of political and constitutional experts to recommend: a) possible ways of avoiding a similar outcome, and b) a clear set of procedures on how to deal with a deadlock in an orderly manner.

Some argue that if the seat count is tied, the party with the most votes should form the government. But “garrison” distortions mean that the popular count no longer truly reflects the will of the people and so is meaningless in this context.

The real solution is to create an odd number of seats by adding at least one constituency. The obvious place to do this is in Portmore, the island’s fastest growing community. To be sure there will be endless wranglings among the parties about new boundaries, and it is unlikely this could be done before the next election. But surely the process should now be well under way.

All that could probably be done at this stage is to get a bipartisan agreement on how power would be shared if no party gains a seat majority. At the very least both sides should agree on what they would not do to inflame the situation, such as organize mass demonstrations for example.

Both leaders should also publicly reaffirm their commitment to the Westminster system by jointly declaring that no matter what the popular vote, the party that wins a majority of seats will form the government. A lot of Jamaicans snickered when George Bush won the U.S. presidency despite losing the popular vote. Well a similar situation happened here in 1949, and could easily happen again.

Neither of these worrying scenarios may ever come to pass. But given our volatile political situation and the impasse in Trinidad, common sense suggests that we should discuss possible provisions while heads are still cool. You don’t wait until the ship is sinking to repair the lifeboats. changkob@hotmail.com