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Published: Sunday | May 14, 2006

THE RECENT Budget Debate proved again that a week is a long time in politics. Before it started the PNP was a strong favourite to win the next general elections. But after Bruce Golding's tour de force and Portia Simpson Miller's rather hesitant performance, it now appears a real horse race.

But though the intelligentsia avidly followed the debates, most voters ignored them.

So do they matter? Some say no, since political junkies and the masses have completely different voting patterns. Others argue that though the electorate generally ignores things like budget debates, come election time it pays considerable attention to the supposedly politically informed 'thinking classes'.

Now, everyone expects Mrs. Simpson Miller to call an early election and capitalise on her grass-roots popularity. But her underwhelming Budget performance shows she may need more time to grow into the job. There was a clear mismatch between her personality and her speech. Naturally, a Prime Minister can't just recycle love and unity cliches. People aren't idiots and require substance from national leaders. The real ballot deciding question is not 'Do I like this person?' but 'Is this person going to make my life better over the next five years?'

But Portia's speech on Tuesday was overloaded with bureaucrateeze that stifled her natural charisma. Positive highlights, like the injection of money into basic schools and the increase in the National Youth Service, aroused merely polite clapping. Even obvious - and in some eyes irresponsible - election bag goodies like half a billion in NHT money for low- income housing and one billion for small business development from the NIF created little excitement.

NOTHING ON CRIME

Her presentation was not devoid of substance. But she said virtually nothing on crime, the biggest problem facing the country. The JLP's recent crime plan made 25 recommendations it claims would cut crime while costing taxpayers nothing. Maybe not all would have the expected effect. But does Ms. Simpson have no interest in any of these suggestions?

Yet, maybe Portia was experiencing opening night jitters. For her flat and boring inaugural Budget Speech brought to mind Bruce Golding's flat and boring JLP conference speech last December. But Bruce has improved dramatically, for his Budget presentation was outstanding. Emmy winning Cliff Hughes gave him nine out of 10. Fair and balanced Lloyd B. Smith called it 'one of the best I have heard since the "halcyon" days of Michael Manley'.

No longer can the JLP be accused of not standing for anything. Its crime plan, though incomplete, is full of substance, as was Mr. Golding's speech. One highlight was the call to update our 150-year-old colonial 'backra massa' libel laws. Another was the invitation for the Prime Minister to walk hand-in-hand with him through inner- city garrisons and show hostile party tribes first-hand that their leaders repudiate their murderous political animosity.

Ms. Simpson Miller accepted the challenge, and I would love to see them exchange T-shirts while marching. The shock of seeing Portia in 'labourite' green and Bruce in 'socialist' orange might rearrange a few deluded brain cells. We take politics way too seriously in this country. Confident democracies can laugh publicly at party loyalties and colours.

Even more impressive than the content of Mr. Golding's speech was his tone. Somehow the boring, mind-numbing technocrat was transformed into an engaging, joke cracking 'heartical'. Perhaps it was high powered American political consultants. Or the confidence engendered by the full support of a united party. Maybe even a couple shots of white rum. Whatever the cause, he should keep imbibing it.

BEST BUDGET DEBATE

While the standard fell a bit on Tuesday, what with the late start and testy exchanges, the pundits are calling this the best Budget Debate in memory. It could be the freshness of new leaders on both sides. Or possibly the scrutiny of an ever more competitive press is forcing politicians to lift their game. But all in all, the Jamaican body politic appears to be in its healthiest shape since at least 1972.

I can't remember the Government accepting Opposition proposals in previous debates. But Mrs. Simpson Miller agreed with Mr. Golding's garrison walk suggestion. While Omar Davies consented to giving the National Contracts Commissions the force of law and to consider using low interest PetroCaribbe loans to reduce local portion of the national debt burden. Surely, this new political open-mindedness is progress. Moving beyond the 'if it's not my idea it can't be any good' mentality is a sign of maturity in both individuals and countries.

The upcoming campaign might be a Jamaican version of the 2004 American elections where 'no heart tin man' John Kerry challenged 'brainless scarecrow' George W. Bush. Then emotion overcame intellect, albeit with late help from Osama bin Laden. Will Jamaicans prefer Portia 'Mrs. Charisma' Simpson Miller or Bruce 'Mr. Solutions' Golding?

ELECTION DATE

July 4, Norman Manley's birthday, is touted as the probable election date. And after watching the excellent Bush-Kerry clashes, I'm looking forward to our leadership debates. The organisers should get in gear early so we can have professional productions. Some say it will be 'Portia Hide and Duck' again. But while a debate may not have been necessary in an internal party race, no self-respecting modern democracy can expect to have a general election campaign without a televised leadership discussion.

The days of leaders setting their own rules are gone. We, the electorate, have an inalienable right to a searching real time examination of those seeking our vote. Leaders must be able to defend their opinions unassisted and on their feet in the full glare of the public spotlight. Who can't stand the heat shouldn't go into the kitchen.

Now, another PNP victory would mean 20-odd years of one-party rule, an unhealthy situation for any democracy. Yet, in a sense, Mrs. Simpson Miller's ascension to Prime Minister ended 44, or even 62, years of same sex dominance.

Jamaica's problems go beyond politics or economics. No country where 58 per cent of children are without registered fathers is peaceful and prosperous. Most public commentators brush aside the absent father issue, with only Ian Boyne and Ronnie Thwaites showing interest. God knows why our media obsesses so much about homosexuality - which affects only a small minority - and ignores the national scourge of fatherlessness. But until men start taking responsibility for their offspring, no amount of constitutional reform or cheap housing or public calls for love and unity is going to lower our crime rate or increase our productivity.

The male powers that be have no interest in changing a system that produces an endless supply of nubile young girls lacking both money and adult male affection. Only a woman Prime Minister will have the political will to push through laws forcing men to acknowledge and support the fruit of their loins.

But just being a woman is not enough. Mrs. Simpson Miller has certainly not yet shown a willingness to take the necessary bold action, such as championing a Chilean style DNA paternity law making it mandatory for the father's name to be put on every child's birth certificate.

And if Portia proves herself as useless on the issue of fatherlessness as our male prime ministers have been, why should I vote for her?