http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20070819/focus/focus1.html
Published: Sunday | August 19, 2007

Political commentary is really nothing more than running your mouth in public. Writing a column or talking on radio doesn't give anyone special insights or knowledge. All it really means is a bigger audience than the normal rum bar. The average 'expert' is generally no better at guessing the future than the average man or woman. Even Nostradamus only gets it right after the fact.

The Oxford English Dictionary defines 'objective' as 'uninfluenced by emotions or personal prejudices', which is an impossible condition for human beings, especially in the passion-filled political arena. Even non-tribalists vote, if they are responsible citizens, for one party or the other. All we can demand from public pundits is intellectual honesty, which means truly believing what you write or say.

Better manifesto

The other day a security guard jokingly remarked to me that, "Mr. Chang, you turn Shower! 'Cause lately you always bigging upthe JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) and Bruce and running down Portia and the PNP (People's National Party)!" But trying to be unbiased doesn't mean giving equal credit to each party even if one is performing better than the other. We have to call it as we see it. And it appears clear to me - and the vast majority of people I've talked to - that the JLP has run better ads, presented a better manifesto, and debated more effectively than the PNP.

'Not changing no course' and 'Disconnect' and 'Don't draw my tongue' have had a much greater impact than 'Horse's mouth' and 'Flip flop' and 'Bus crash'. A manifesto recycling a failed '100 per cent literacy in five years' promise is not in the same class as one pledging a potentially transforming bipartisan approach to critical government appointments. And Portia Simpson Miller did not demonstrate the same grasp of national issues as Bruce Golding in the leadership debate.

Command of the facts

Praise or blame is only unfair when unwarranted by the facts. I thought Bruce Golding's 2005 JLP conference speech mind-numbingly boring and gave it six out of 10 for content and zero for emotional appeal. In my view, last Saturday night, Mr. Golding not only displayed a better command of the facts than any Jamaican politician I've heard, but I've never seen any leader anywhere perform better in a debate. I stand by both comments.

Public sentiment is virtually unanimous about the leadership face-off - Bruce 'top class', Portia 'not ready'. The rough average score is about eight and five out of 10, respectively. Many were utterly dismayed with Mrs. Simpson Miller's 'we found the money' reply when asked how the free hospital fees for children were funded. Nor did her 'Trust me, mama is here, I love my people and my people love me' spiel go down well. Word on the street also suggests that the 'Not prime ministerial' tag has only been reinforced by 'Don't draw my tongue'. Some might find this upsetting, but don't shoot the messenger, folks. So me get it, so me give it.

On the other hand, people seem genuinely impressed with Mr. Golding's 'principle before party' answer to the 'flip-flop' question. And his clear costing of the JLP's short-term free education and health-care plans - $1 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, for a total of $2.5 billion which represents three quarters of one per cent of the total budget - has pretty much settled the 'wild promises' argument.

New respect for Bruce

Mr. Golding has often been dismissed as merely a potential lesser of two evils, a default recipient of anti-Portia and anti-PNP votes but not a positive force in himself. But one previously indifferent friend enthused to me on Sunday that "Maybe Bruce Golding really is the man to change Jamaica!" Most of the post-debate discussions focused on Portia, but one senses a new respect for Bruce. He is increasingly viewed as a man who has stayed true to his vision for Jamaica, a vision that seems more attractive the more you look at it. A country where every child gets a decent education and every adult has a decent job - well, who can argue with that?

Now Danny Buchanan says the above is all nonsense and Portia was 'superior in every aspect'. Well, you gonna believe me or your lying eyes? Judging by the laughter Danny's remarks drew from those watching the news with me, the public has already decided.

Mr. Buchanan and those of his ilk are living in a past where there were only two television and radio stations and newspapers, and a party could often 'control' the news and get the public to buy its spin-doctored version of events. Well, those days done.

Big audiences

Probably 75 per cent or more of the voting public watched the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader debate. The Phillips-Baugh and Shaw-Davies showdowns likely also drew big audiences. And even the candidate debates on TVJ and CVM have been widely discussed. People are seeing and hearing with their own eyes and ears, and making up their own minds.

Political commentators used to dismiss party manifestos because'voters don't care about such things'. But while not necessarily poring over every detail, the public has certainly not ignored the JLP and PNP plans this time around. The radio audiences for the live launches must have run into the hundreds of thousands. And the excellent analysis by the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI) in The Gleaner has made these rather long and tedious documents accessible in a way never seen before. CaPRI's close scrutiny has probably shocked both parties, who are used to making a bunch of glib promises in the confident expectation that the Jamaican intelligentsia will be too lazy to call them to book. But again, those days done.

It's marvellous to see Jamaican democracy maturing in a manner befitting a 45-year-old. One especially pleasing aspect is the increasing level of civility between rival candidates. Except for a few Stone-Age ignoramuses, the constituency contenders are behaving like ladies and gentlemen towards each other and setting excellent examples for their followers.