http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20070506/focus/focus1.html
Published: Sunday | May 6, 2007

The less stable the political system, the more serious the issues. In war-torn Somalia and Iraq, it's about trying not to get blown up. In recent army takeover Bangladesh and Thailand, it's about whether free elections will be held any time soon. In strongman-ruled Venezuela and Russia, it's about toeing the government line or being shut down, jailed or shot.

Things are more boring in the rich and mature West. France talks of Nicolas 'the brute' Sarkozy versus Ségoléne 'airhead' Royal, though both are career establishment politicians. Britain goes on about brooding working-class Gordon Brown against pretty boy toff David Cameron, even if their socially liberal, economically conservative platforms are practically identical. America wonders who has the biggest electoral handicap, ice-witch Hillary Clinton, black, raw, green Barak Obama, fat has-been Al Gore, worn-out geezer John McCain, or erratic jerk Rudy Guilliani.

memories of 1972

In Jamaica, yawn-inducing budget debates aside, the headlines are about self-styled seers and biblical name calling. Which is a vast improvement on the warring political gangs and potential ballot box stealing and rigged electoral lists of the not-so-distant past. Indeed, the Prophet and Jezebel controversies bring to mind 1972s 'Rod of Correction' hullabaloo.

It's a sign, perhaps, that Jamaican politics has successfully resolved the truly critical problems of democracy, and can return to colourful, if meaningless, diversions. When newspaper editorials call for candidate Joan Gordon-Webley to resign because she called Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller 'Jezebel', well, we've come a long way baby.

As for Pastor Phillip Phinn's prophecies, well, does anyone really think people will mindlessly vote for a party because some self-anointed Ezekiel predicts victory? The very notion is an insult to Jamaicans. We have enjoyed 45 years of unbroken democracy precisely because our electorate has little time for demagogic nonsense. The usual reaction to party propagandist churchmen is 'Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and to God the things that are God's'.

Political planners pay more attention to polls than prophets. And recent Gleaner polls by Bill Johnson - who, incidentally, overestimated the PNP vote by 10 per cent in 2002 - must have the PNP worried and the JLP cock a hoop.

Most striking is JLP Chris Tufton's 52 per cent to 25 per cent lead over PNP Stanley Redwood in South West St. Elizabeth, a PNP seat in the last four elections and which the Government-forming party has always won since 1962. Almost as noteworthy is St. Catherine South East where JLP Arthur Williams is four points ahead of PNP Colin Fagan, in a seat comrade Paul Robertson won by 11 per cent in 2002. While in St. Andrew East PNP Trevor Munroe leads JLP MP St. Aubyn Bartlett, seen as an unpopular non-performer even within his own party, by only six points, with the party vote tied at 29 per cent.

There's growing optimism among the bells and increasing resignation among the heads. Some Labourites talk of 45 seats so that 'We can reform the constitution!'. Well I'm from the 'if it aint broke don't fix it' school and to me Jamaica's political system is pretty healthy. Some tidying up is definitely warranted. But our pressing need is not excessive constitutional meddling, but sound and decisive management. My personally hope is 40 seats maximum for whichever party wins.

A week is a long time politics and unexpected events often turn elections around. So the JLP shouldn't count any chickens yet. Some still feel that when the Sista P bandwagon gets rolling 'Portia magic' will put the comrades back in front. Others say Portiamania has dwindled and she is neither a big plus or minus for her party.

Despite a slow start, Mrs. Simpson-Miller gave a much better budget speech than last year. NHT loan ceilings increases and free hospital fees for minors caught the public eye, though there is some confusion on the scope and funding of the latter. But despite the improved delivery, overall there was little to distinguish her presentation from any of the past 18 years.

For all her emphasis on family, where's the legislative beef? Fatherly obligations begin with legally acknowledgingyour children. But less than 50 per cent of Jamaican children have registered fathers. This could be increased substantially by Chilean style paternity laws where mothers can compel fathers to put their name on their offspring's birth certificate, with doubts resolved by court ordered DNA testing. But our first female PM seems quite uninterested. Her talk about 'strengthening family bonds' is apparently just that.

Whatever the initial 'new and different' expectations, Mrs. Simpson-Miller now clearly represents business as usual - which has been good enough for four straight PNP victories. And responsible for them or not, under her watch the economy has - at least by Jamaican standards - grown healthily, inflation has fallen, and crime has stabilised. Time will tell whether this record garners a fifth straight term.

In his presentation Bruce Golding projected an image of modernisation and facilitation. Like Portia, Bruce has grown into the job, and he came across as calm, confident and competent. Not everyone is convinced of his budget math, though his announced policies have at least been theoretically planned and costed and not just thrown out ad hoc.

Yet had Ms. Simpson-Miller pledged free education, free health care and a five U.S. cents per pound sugar subsidy, many would have screamed 'irresponsible populism'. A clear case of double standards really. But it's hilarious to see 'populist' Portia boast Edward Seaga like of 'fiscal responsibility' while 'book-keeper' Bruce promises Michael Manley style 'freeness'. Who says politics is boring?

Mr. Golding's promised 'legs and regs' overhaul of business legislation and regulations will win much favour with the private sector, which is where the jobs come from. While his 'under one roof 90 day onus on the planning agencies' proposal could unleash a burst of entrepreneurial energy. If good ideas can be put into action in under 12 months instead of a red tape bogged down three plus years, Asian tiger-like six per cent or more growth might yet become a reality here instead of just creative accounting fantasies.

Incredibly both the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader virtually ignored the nation's most serious problem, namely crime. Mr. Golding merely mentioned last year's MacMillan crime plan. Ms. Simpson-Miller talked glibly about special squads for finding guns with no details. Neither addressed the crucial issue of repeat offenders. Whether we adopt U.S. style 'Three strikes' initiatives or modifications thereof, Jamaica cannot get murder under control until the hardcore criminals who commit the vast majority of serious crimes are removed from the streets.

With both sides unwilling to focus on what really troubles most Jamaicans, many feel the coming general election will be won on the ground. Meaning the commitment of constituency candidates will largely determine how people vote. Some say the JLP's new found unity has enabled them to emphasise competence in choosing candidates, while the PNP's yellow and orange divisions has sometimes put ideological correctness ahead of winnability. There is certainly a common impression that at the local level JLP candidates are generally outworking and out-organising their PNP counterparts.

Voting day will tell the story. And this election may yet have a Biblical tinge. Though not strictly in the Good Book, it's a popular theme with pastors - God helps those who help themselves.